Crowd Modelling from First Principles

We are developing a new approach to crowd movement modelling, to reflect the core mechanics of walking, reacting to movement, and the different levels of mobility inherent in modern population demographics.

The core principles of the model are based on:

1.        Analysing data from different experiments to measure the extents of “gait space” of people walking in the real world.

2.        Using the results from experimental data to predict the movement of individuals in large crowds.

3.        Applying different “choice reaction times” for people with different ages and cognitive processing times within the new model, in order to reflect a wider range of individual abilities.

4.        Applying these formulae to generate the classic speed/flow/density curves from the first principles of walking movement.

5.        Implementing the validated formulae in a new computer model of crowd flow, based on the underlying algorithms of the evacuation model Simulex.

Screen image of the test-bed modelling spreadsheet, generating “fundamental curves”

Related references:

1.        “Measuring gait space: new dimensions for crowd flow”: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104740

2.        “A novel approach to the investigation and quantification of the stop/start process for pedestrian traffic using motion capture devices” https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2023.100659

3.        “Experimental analyses of step extent and contact buffer in pedestrian dynamics”: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.126927

“Agent-based models of social behaviour and communication in evacuations: A systematic review”: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106520