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What We Did
The MCom thesis of Nicolas Adams used 15 years of hospital discharge data from four NZ towns to test the proposition that the introduction of cycleways has a positive impact on public health. Two of the four towns introduced extensive cycleway networks during 2010-12 while the other two did not. The thesis compared the before-and-after public health experience of the first group with that of the second group. Overall, no difference between the two groups could be observed, suggesting that the impact of cycleways on public health is negligible.
Who Was Involved
University of Canterbury, Ministry of Health (data)
Why It Matters
Cycleways are flavour of the month in many parts of NZ, with much of the enthusiasm emanating from economic cost-benefit analyses attributing large net benefits to cycleway networks. Most of the touted economic benefits are due to forecast improvements in public health, but these are predictions based on modelling exercises, and predictions are not evidence, despite policy-makers often treating them as such. In fact, there is a singular lack of evidence on the actual effectiveness of cycleways in promoting public health. This project is a first attempt at actually providing some evidence on the matter. Its inability to detect any health benefits calls into question the business case for cycleway.
Learn More
The thesis won the 2020 Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport Award for Outstanding Research Achievement for a Masters' Dissertation or Thesis, sponsored by Abley Ltd. Mr Adams’ supervisor intends to develop a publicly-available UC working paper adapted from the thesis.
