Year

# MSCI202-11S2 (C)Semester Two 2011Business Forecasting and Simulation

 15 points, 0.1250 EFTS11 Jul 2011 - 13 Nov 2011 ↓Other occurrences

## Description

Discrete event simulation lets us build computer models of facilities and systems. Forecasting methods help us to predict demand for goods and services. This course develops the understanding and skills to apply these two techniques to practical problems in business, using modern software. We also cover the data analysis skills to model the inputs for these and other OR/OM techniques.

## Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course you should be able to:
• Collect and measure data so as to fit probability distributions so as to model elements of uncertainty in MS/OR models.
• Identify the components of a discrete-event simulation: events, activities, temporary and permanent entities. Know how at least one style of discrete-event simulation programming works, and describe the advantages and drawbacks of this style.
• Describe how at least one pseudo-random number generator works, how a range of random variates are produced, and identify the advantages and disadvantages of pseudo-random number generators in simulation problems.
• Identify and give examples of the steps in the Simulation Modelling Process. Apply appropriate steps to a particular simulation problem.
• Build a simple simulation model for a particular situation using Simul8, run the simulation, and produce valid results that are of value to a decision maker.
• Explain why extrapolative models are often used in place of causal models for short-term business forecasting.
• Identify and describe the components of a time series, and identify appropriate methods for forecasting a particular series.
• Describe the methods behind the range of models in a modern forecasting program (Forecast Pro), use the program competently, and critically evaluate the output of the program so as to produce appropriate results for decision making.
• Identify the steps required to set up a business forecasting system.

## Pre-requisites

MSCI110 or 15 points STAT. RP: MSCI101

MSCI204

## Timetable

 Lectures Streams Day Time Where Stream A Wednesday 1:00pm-3:00pm Kirkwood KG05

 Labs Streams Day Time Where Stream A Thursday 1:00pm-2:00pm Erskine 136 Lab 4 Stream B Thursday 2:00pm-3:00pm Erskine 010 Crypt 2

## Assessment

Assessment Due Date Percentage  Description
Assignment 1 18 Aug 2011 15% Assignment 1
Assignment 2 15 Sep 2011 20% Assignment 2
Assignment 3 13 Oct 2011 15% Assignment 3
Final Examination 50% Final Examination

The total workload for this course is expected to be 150 hours.  You should expect to spend:

Lectures 24 hours
Tutorials 12 hours
Assignments 48 hours
Exam Preparation 30 hours
Tutorial preparation 12 hours
Lecture Preparation 24 hours
Total 150 hours

The marks for the assessment items will be standardised before a final grade is determined. You should not regard 50% as a pass mark.

## Examination and Formal Tests

 Exam Thursday 10 Nov 2011 2:30pm-5:30pm

## Textbooks

There will be extensive readings. A  recommended text (possibly Winston Operations Research) will be listed after consultation with the coordinators of related courses.

1. Random variables, means, variances, distributions
Measuring and analysing data
2. Simulation
Random numbers and random variates
Discrete event simulation components and styles
The Simul8 package
The Simulation Modelling Process
Analysis of Simulation Output
3. Forecasting
Causal and extrapolative forecasting methods
Components of a time series
Smoothing and ARIMA models

## Notes

If you require a hard copy of this document, please ask the course co-ordinator. The Department assumes that you have read this document. You should also read the “Information related to courses and assessment” on page 32 of the Enrolment Handbook 2011 (also in UC Calendar under “General Course and Examination Regulations”).

Dishonest Practice
The University of Canterbury considers cheating and plagiarism to be serious acts of dishonesty.  All assessed work must be your own individual work unless specifically stated otherwise in the assessment guidelines. Material quoted from any other source must be clearly acknowledged. You must not copy the work of another person (student or published work) in any assessment including examinations, tests and assignments. Any person, who is found to have copied someone else's work, or to have allowed their work to be copied, will receive a fail grade for that piece of assessment and may face disciplinary action which may lead to a fine, community service or exclusion from the university.

IMPORTANT: Where there are concerns regarding the authorship of written course work, a student can be required to provide a formal, oral explanation of the content of their work.

Coversheets - Group and Individual

## Fees

Domestic fee \$630.00
International fee \$2,775.00

For further information see Management.

### All MSCI202 Occurrences

• MSCI202-11S2 (C) Semester Two 2011
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